El Pais, Aug. 30, 2022
By: Carmen Morán Breña
It is said of politics that it's never focused on the long term because it's not profitable for it, except in the run-up to elections. In that race, the candidates prefer a marathon. They are not satisfied with the final (formal) sprint of the campaign. In Mexico, the candidates seeking to succeed the president in 2024 have already left the starting blocks a long time ago and they don't stop running.
Morena, the party of Andrés Manuel López Obrador (the current president, who created the party in 2014), starts with a clear advantage, because the party has put running shoes on him while the other parties are very slow getting started. It is often said that the momentum of this young party is due exclusively to the president's popularity, which isn't declining.
But other faces from Morena are already making themselves known as candidates for the presidential succession. And the likelihood of success remains, as all Morena candidates have a 10-point advantage in the polls over those who could present themselves in the alliances that are now in the opposition. It seems that Mexicans want to give more time to the ambitious Fourth Transformation that López Obrador claims to have undertaken.
MV Note: Upon his election in July 2018, Lopez Obrador not only declared victory, he declared that his government would, in effect, be a revolution in how politics and the government are run in Mexico. It would be "The Fourth Transformation" of Mexico, equal to or greater than the three previous transformations of the country and its government: the War for Independence from Spain (1810-1821), the liberal "Restored Republic" of the Presidency of Benito Juárez (1867-1876), or the Mexican Revolution (1910-1917)
Of all those from Morena, the most outstanding face is that of the head of the Government of Mexico City, Claudia Sheinbaum, who not only surpasses her opponents in the polls, but also surpasses them with a margin equal to that of her own party. Being the mayor of the capital has always been a good launching pad, even in a country as large and divided into states as Mexico. Or it can be a springboard to disaster. It all depends.
The doctor, as they call her, exceeds by 12 points the estimated vote for Luis Donaldo Colosio, one of the possible leaders that the National Action Party (PAN) could put out to compete in 2024. If instead of Colosio, who has an illustrious surname in the Mexican political landscape, the one chosen for the battle is Ricardo Anaya, the doctor still has an advantage over him. It's not surprising. To think that a candidate who has an issue of shady corruption that keeps him away from his potential supporters can compete in an election is to underestimate the democratic health of a country. But if the people don't even know where this man is, if he is in Mexico, in the United States or elsewhere, he has fled from justice.
Enkoll's poll for EL PAÍS gives Morena such a lead that her desire for the votes of the rest of the parties together doesn't bother her. And if the preferred candidate is Sheinbaum, the equation is easy to solve. The question is, will Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard be able to reduce that difference with the mayor in the many months that remain and then take advantage of the pull of his party in the presidential elections?
There will be more surveys that will make us wiser. For now, the interpretation of this poll seems simple: the opposition remains disjointed, without clear faces or any momentum, while the shadow of the president remains elongated and under his blanket the Morea party members advance without hindrance. But beware, in politics long periods of time give space for a lot to talk about. Spanish original