Claudia Salazar and Érika Hernández
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| Morena and Its Allies Lose Ground in Chamber of Deputies |
Mexico City, June 07, 2021: The bloc of parties forming the 4T (Fourth Transformation, President Lopez Obrador's name for his administration) suffered a strong blow, losing its absolute majority (i.e. two-thirds majority required to pass constitutional amendments) in the Chamber of Deputies (the lower chamber of Congress, in the mid-term elections held yesterday, June 6. All Senators hold six-year terms that began in 2018 and end in 2024).
According to the quick count announced by the President of the National Electoral Institute (INE), Lorenzo Córdova, Morena (the Movement for National Regeneration, founded by Lopez Obrador in 2014) will gain a maximum of 203 deputies (out of 500). This will require that it have agreements with its allies (to pass any legislation), but will now also need agreements with opposition parties to pass any constitutional reforms.
The Alianza Va por México, together with the MC (Citizen Movement), will likely obtain 219 deputies and thus be able to stop the steamroller that Morena and its allies have exercised in the last Legislature.
MV Note: The Alliance Going for Mexico consists of a united front of the three former major parties that competed for control of the government, federally and in the states and municipalities. They are the PRI [Party of the Institutional Revolution], PAN [National Action Party] and PRD [Party of the Democratic Revolution]). They formed their unprecedented united front in order to try to overcome Morena's hegemonic control at all levels of govenment since 2018.
Even to achieve a simple majority (half plus one), Morena will need the votes of deputies from PVEM (Green Party), PT (Labor Party) and PES for the approval of the Expenditure Budget in each of the next three years.
MV Note: All three of these parties were part of the Morena-led Juntos Hacemos Historia (Together We Make History) alliance that won the 2018 elections. They survive only via alliances with one or another of the major parties and will virtually certainly continue to support Morena. However, they may demand deals from Morena, increasing their political power in exchange for their now increasingly essential support. Passing the annua budget will be one obvious opportunity for such wheeling and dealing.
According to the quick count of the INE, Morena will obtain between 190 and 203 deputies....The Green Party will win 48 members and the Labor Party 41, so Morena, together with those allies, would have a block of 281 deputies, but it forces the party to depend on them to carry out the legislative agenda without having to negotiate with the opposition.
However, this number will not be enough to maintain the two-thirds majority that they had in the 64th Congress, that is, 333 legislators out of 500, and that allowed them easily to pass constitutional reforms.
Senator Manuel Velasco (leader of the Green Party) declared yesterday, in an interview with Grupo REFORMA, that his party was evaluating maintaining its legislative alliance with Morena.
"We have to make an assessment (of that alliance). I am convinced that the country cannot continue in this climate of social tension and division that we have had in recent times and what we need is to listen to all voices, to rethink and build together," said the former Governor of Chiapas.
MV Note: The Green Party was formerly allied with the PRI and it and Velasco are notoriously opportunistic and corrupt in their politics. So this statement already points to the party thinking about with which power group it is going to ally itself for the next three years or even that it may switch its alliance depending on the issue and the benefit it can obtain from the position it takes.
Among the pending legislative agenda items of the López Obrador government is the proposal to modify the country's energy scheme and the operation of autonomous bodies, among other initiatives
MV Note: These changes will require constitutional amendments to change the previous "Energy Reform" of the Peña Nieto administration and to modify in any way the autonomous agencies, such as the National Electoral Institute or the Institute for Access to Government Information.
After the election day, the opposition Going for Mexico coalition (PAN-PRI-PRD) is strengthened, winning 219 deputies. In the Congress that is about to conclude, PAN, PRI, PRD and MC had 164 legislators.
The Going for Mexico coalition (PAN-PRI-PRD) obtained major results in urban areas, one of them in Mexico City, where a month after the collapse of Line 12 of the Metro, it may have carried 13 boroughs (out of 16 in the election of their "mayors")...
The quick count also showed that two new parties will not be able to maintain their official registration, as they did not achieve the required 3 percent of the vote. Force for Mexico and Progressive Social Networks did not meet the minimum required to be able to keep their registration. Encuentro Solidario (Solidarity Encounter) is in a position to remain as a national political party as long as it meets the level of 3 percent of the votes.