Animal Politico: Rodrigo Elizarrarás*
November 7, 2019
How long will giving hugs to organized crime last? [The motto of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, aka AMLO.] The recent massacre of members of the LeBaron family in the north of the country gives a new twist to what is already perceived as a failed security strategy. It seems derived from a position that oscillates between indifference and cynicism, something that at times seems to be a posture between being Christian and hippie. The President minimizes the reprehensible episodes of insecurity that we live through each week, assigning their origin to the bad decisions of past administrations. However, the state of insecurity in the country is growing month by month - although "other data" is available [AMLO's response to facts he doesn't like.] - and there is still no feasible public security strategy from the federal government.
In less than a month, we have witnessed serious events in Aguililla (Michocán), Chilapa (Guerrero), Culiacán (Sinaloa) and now in Bavispe (between Chihuahua and Sonora) and there is no strong government reaction because "the strategy has already changed." The president and his security team take these events as if they were part of a story that does not belong to them and that is due to "the mistakes of the past." Apparently, they intend to erase reality by decree.
In this column, from the beginning of the year, we warned about the main risks facing the current government . One of the 10 main risks was to consolidate a viable and effective security strategy in the short and long term. However, the path taken implies coordination failures that are usually not resolved, a concentration of information in a few hands, and a series of legal and administrative reforms that will inevitably delay the effectiveness of the results from two to three years. To this, we must add the lack of knowledge of the issue by the main civilian leaders in the administration.
Even so, until now, we have avoided making an analysis on the subject, waiting for them to settle into their positions, the transformations were consolidated and a more detailed strategy was designed with more information available than 11 months ago. The truth is that since the publication of the National Development Plan there was a clear signal that the design of public policies would leave much to be desired in this administration (and we have seen the effects this has had). Similarly, the learning curve (on multiple topics) of this government has been particularly long. And why?
In short, the recent massacre of members of the LeBaron family in the north of the country gives a new twist to what is already perceived as a failed (if not absent) security strategy. No results are seen locally, or nationally, nor are the National Guard's powers clear. One day they watch over the border, another day they fight the huachicol [colloquial for the robbing of gasoline from the pipelines of PEMEX, the state oil company], another they get on the City Metro and now they are going after Uber drivers). In addition, we are in the hands of a secretary [of public security] with little knowledge in the matter and with limited interaction with the members of the Security Cabinet. Again, trust counts more than expertise. Loyalty rather than knowledge determines the positions of power. The fourth transformation has not arrived [AMLO equates his administration with the War for Independence, the Reform Period of President Benito Juárez and the Mexican Revolution].
The massacre in Chihuahua, after the failed operation in Culiacán and despite the distracting attempts directed by the President, presents a special focus from the point of view of the United States. Neither Trump nor other important members of the Republican Party will overlook what is seen as an attack on U.S. citizens [those killed in Chihuahua were Mormons whose ancestors emigrated from the U.S. and they hold U.S. citizenship] in a situation of misgovernment and absence of rule of law.
I have no doubt that the US government will pressure Mexico to do justice in the case of the LeBaron family and end the López Obrador government's tolerance of the drug cartels. The current position of the government in relationship to the criminal groups will not sit well with our northern neighbor. If there is no change in direction, the risk of U.S. pressures on commercial and economic issues increases, and could go even further. Unfortunately, the president is trapped in his own narrative of "transformation of the past", and in the daily search for his own identity as a supposed leftist government.
The foolishness of showing what a different strategy would look like leaves the government simply without a strategy. The confusion in the initial diagnosis and the failures in coordination in his cabinet are the result of the exacerbated centralism of the AMLO government. The problem is that time passes and no results are seen.
I don't know how many more daily morning press conferences AMLO can continue to use to distract the audience with reciting the histories of Porfirio Díaz [president and dictator from 1876 to 1911]-Madero [president, 1911 to 1913, when he was overthrown], Juárez and conservatives vs iberals-fifis -[AMLO'S term for academics and the well-to-do as stuck-up and self-centered] and other comic strips. The president takes refuge in history because it allows him to flee from the current reality; Apparently, he doesn't like being Head of State and making difficult decisions, those that are part of the art of governing. The time has come for him to assume personal responsibility and change the narrative with facts, actions and government decisions.
Almost twelve months of the new government have passed, with a great bond with the people, high levels of approval, legitimacy. AMLO has the necessary means and majorities in Congress, budget control, and yet he prefers to continue the same narrative and his attacks of the opposition (What opposition? There is none left!). Perhaps he is seeking to bide time while several of us ask ourselves: how long will the hugs for organized crime last? How many more Aguilillas, Culiacanes, Bavispes, Salamancas, Chilapas, Ayotzinapas, San Fernandos do we have to tolerate? When will we hit bottom? Spanish original
November 7, 2019
How long will giving hugs to organized crime last? [The motto of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, aka AMLO.] The recent massacre of members of the LeBaron family in the north of the country gives a new twist to what is already perceived as a failed security strategy. It seems derived from a position that oscillates between indifference and cynicism, something that at times seems to be a posture between being Christian and hippie. The President minimizes the reprehensible episodes of insecurity that we live through each week, assigning their origin to the bad decisions of past administrations. However, the state of insecurity in the country is growing month by month - although "other data" is available [AMLO's response to facts he doesn't like.] - and there is still no feasible public security strategy from the federal government.
In less than a month, we have witnessed serious events in Aguililla (Michocán), Chilapa (Guerrero), Culiacán (Sinaloa) and now in Bavispe (between Chihuahua and Sonora) and there is no strong government reaction because "the strategy has already changed." The president and his security team take these events as if they were part of a story that does not belong to them and that is due to "the mistakes of the past." Apparently, they intend to erase reality by decree.
In this column, from the beginning of the year, we warned about the main risks facing the current government . One of the 10 main risks was to consolidate a viable and effective security strategy in the short and long term. However, the path taken implies coordination failures that are usually not resolved, a concentration of information in a few hands, and a series of legal and administrative reforms that will inevitably delay the effectiveness of the results from two to three years. To this, we must add the lack of knowledge of the issue by the main civilian leaders in the administration.
Even so, until now, we have avoided making an analysis on the subject, waiting for them to settle into their positions, the transformations were consolidated and a more detailed strategy was designed with more information available than 11 months ago. The truth is that since the publication of the National Development Plan there was a clear signal that the design of public policies would leave much to be desired in this administration (and we have seen the effects this has had). Similarly, the learning curve (on multiple topics) of this government has been particularly long. And why?
In short, the recent massacre of members of the LeBaron family in the north of the country gives a new twist to what is already perceived as a failed (if not absent) security strategy. No results are seen locally, or nationally, nor are the National Guard's powers clear. One day they watch over the border, another day they fight the huachicol [colloquial for the robbing of gasoline from the pipelines of PEMEX, the state oil company], another they get on the City Metro and now they are going after Uber drivers). In addition, we are in the hands of a secretary [of public security] with little knowledge in the matter and with limited interaction with the members of the Security Cabinet. Again, trust counts more than expertise. Loyalty rather than knowledge determines the positions of power. The fourth transformation has not arrived [AMLO equates his administration with the War for Independence, the Reform Period of President Benito Juárez and the Mexican Revolution].
The massacre in Chihuahua, after the failed operation in Culiacán and despite the distracting attempts directed by the President, presents a special focus from the point of view of the United States. Neither Trump nor other important members of the Republican Party will overlook what is seen as an attack on U.S. citizens [those killed in Chihuahua were Mormons whose ancestors emigrated from the U.S. and they hold U.S. citizenship] in a situation of misgovernment and absence of rule of law.
I have no doubt that the US government will pressure Mexico to do justice in the case of the LeBaron family and end the López Obrador government's tolerance of the drug cartels. The current position of the government in relationship to the criminal groups will not sit well with our northern neighbor. If there is no change in direction, the risk of U.S. pressures on commercial and economic issues increases, and could go even further. Unfortunately, the president is trapped in his own narrative of "transformation of the past", and in the daily search for his own identity as a supposed leftist government.
The foolishness of showing what a different strategy would look like leaves the government simply without a strategy. The confusion in the initial diagnosis and the failures in coordination in his cabinet are the result of the exacerbated centralism of the AMLO government. The problem is that time passes and no results are seen.
I don't know how many more daily morning press conferences AMLO can continue to use to distract the audience with reciting the histories of Porfirio Díaz [president and dictator from 1876 to 1911]-Madero [president, 1911 to 1913, when he was overthrown], Juárez and conservatives vs iberals-fifis -[AMLO'S term for academics and the well-to-do as stuck-up and self-centered] and other comic strips. The president takes refuge in history because it allows him to flee from the current reality; Apparently, he doesn't like being Head of State and making difficult decisions, those that are part of the art of governing. The time has come for him to assume personal responsibility and change the narrative with facts, actions and government decisions.
Almost twelve months of the new government have passed, with a great bond with the people, high levels of approval, legitimacy. AMLO has the necessary means and majorities in Congress, budget control, and yet he prefers to continue the same narrative and his attacks of the opposition (What opposition? There is none left!). Perhaps he is seeking to bide time while several of us ask ourselves: how long will the hugs for organized crime last? How many more Aguilillas, Culiacanes, Bavispes, Salamancas, Chilapas, Ayotzinapas, San Fernandos do we have to tolerate? When will we hit bottom? Spanish original
*Rodrigo Elizarrarás is a consultant and political analyst interested in the coincidence between social mobilization, political conflicts and violence.He has covered the Zapatista and self-defense movements in the last 20 years. He lives with part time in Mexico City and another part in Baja California Sur. @rodaxiando