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Monday, August 29, 2016

Mexican Government: Peña Nieto Is a Lame Duck

Reforma: Denise Dresser*
Translated by Amanda Moody

An injured duck. A hobbling duck. A “lame duck”. A duck which hops unsteadily on just one foot. This is Enrique Peña Nieto for the remainder of his government. Two long years with no hope, with no drive, with no road map. Disapproved of by the population and despised by his own party. Condemned by public opinion and by the international press. The man who is President in title, but not in what he can achieve in the office that he has battered and stained. The failed President at the head of a State that is faltering in its core tasks of ensuring security, stability, growth, human rights, equity and law. Because the head duck leading the flock has fallen to the ground so many times that his recovery looks to be impossible.

As Javier Malagón tweeted: “It's just one thesis [Peña Nieto plagiarized about 30% of his thesis for his law degree], one "White House" [of his wife, Angélica Rivera, built and financed by the Higa Group, major government contractor], one apartment in Miami [the property taxes on his wife's apartment were paid by a Mexican businessman and friend], 43 [Ayotzinapa] students, the gasoline being 47% more expensive, a peso devalued by 30%, some reforms that don’t work, a broken economy, a rising unemployment rate”. And more.

A long list which is partly a product of the international context but also, principally, of the presidential administration. Mistake after mistake, scandal after scandal, questionable decision after questionable decision. The reckoning up of a six-year term of office that promised so much and delivered so little. Because of the lack of political expertise of Peña Nieto and those around him. Because of the corruption which they didn’t perceive as a problem and continue condoning among those who are closest. Because of the poor implementation of reforms which were necessary but sabotaged by cronyism or collusion or incompetence.

Maybe also because of the province [State of Mexico] from which the presidential duck comes. That place of patrimonialism [using public funds for personal use] that is Atlacomulco [hometown of Peña Nieto and many PRI politicians], with its pacts of impunity and its constrained thinking and “buddyism” and its rules for politics that have been so damaging. The PRI of the State of Mexico who moved to the national stage and failed there because of the corruption that eats away at their actions. The DNA of Carlos Hank González [founder of the “Alacomulco group” in the PRI] is present in each of his pupils, in each of his descendants. The vulture who gave birth to ducks.

The ducklings who are now lost because the lake was too large for them, the waves were too strong for infants. They were used to the logic of “a politician who is poor is a poor politician” [statement of Hank González], but when they tried to follow that logic in the new millennium, their wings were clipped. The independent journalists like Carmen Aristegui who have not stopped investigating. Human rights organizations who have not stopped denouncing. The opposition front exists and is growing, but it is not in the opposition parties. It's in the street, on social networks, on Facebook, in universities, in the mind of every Mexican that looks at Peña Nieto with disdain.

And the problem is not only one of perception. It is not just society’s bad mood. It is not just a matter of those who are branded envious or rabid or sensationalists who criticize for the sake of criticizing [all statements made by Peña Nieto or government spokespeople]. Numbers do not lie, the data does not tally, the figures fail to support what the government continues trying to sell. Here is the downward revision of growth prospects announced by the Standard & Poors rating. Here is the recent Bloomberg notice talking about the debt levels of this administration, 34.5% of GDP, similar to those of the last year of the Salinas administration. Many are already talking about a context similar to that which brought about the “Tequila Effect” crisis. [In 1994, a sudden devaluation in the Mexican peso due to huge foreign debt caused other currencies in the region to decline.] Saying that the president of Mexico “is in serious danger”.

Part of the problem is not his fault. Neither falling oil prices nor the devaluation of the peso nor the slow expansion of the US economy fall on his shoulders. But the creation of an environment in which distrust translates into a lack of investment and the flight of capital, that is his responsibility. It is his responsibility to have allowed Luis Videgaray [Secretary of the Treasury] to have put the country so far into debt, channeling additional resources to current expenditure, salaries and wages, election cycles, the daily financing of corruption. The government spends, but the economy does not grow. The government spends, but not in public investment but on the public payroll. Burdened with an ever shrinking margin for maneuver and an ever growing debt. The lame duck is dragging the country down behind him.

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*Denise Dresser is a Mexican political analyst, writer, and university professor. After completing undergraduate work at The College of Mexico, she earned her Ph.D. in Politics at Princeton University. She is currently a faculty member in the Department of Political Science at the Autonomous Technological Institute of Mexico (ITAM), where she teaches courses such as Comparative Politics, Political Economy and Contemporary Mexican Politics. She has taught at Georgetown University and the University of California. In December 2015, she was decorated as a Knight of the Legion of Honor by the French government. Twitter: @DeniseDresserG