The Mexico Peace Index (MPI), produced by the Institute for Economics and Peace, provides a comprehensive measure of peacefulness in Mexico from 2003 to 2015, with new results for 2015. This report aims to deepen the understanding of the trends, patterns and drivers of peace in Mexico, while highlighting the important economic benefits that will flow from a more peaceful society. The MPI is based on the work of the Global Peace Index, the leading measure of global peacefulness that has been produced by IEP every year since 2007. It is part of a series of national peace indices, which includes the United States Peace Index and the United Kingdom Peace Index.In 2015, Mexico’s peace improved by 0.3 percent, which is the smallest improvement in peace in the last five years. The improvement is largely attributed to a 10 percent decline in the violent crime rate and an eight percent decline in the rate of organized crime related offenses. However, this was offset by deteriorations in detention without sentencing, weapons crime and the homicide rate. The latter increased by six percent. Furthermore, the gap between the most and least peaceful states widened slightly in 2015, reversing the trend observed in six of the seven prior years.
An area of concern is the trend towards increased impunity, which deteriorated dramatically from 2007 onwards. In 2007, there were four convictions for every five cases of homicide, but by 2013 there was only one conviction for every five cases. This, combined with the increases in detention without sentencing, points to an overstretched judicial system, as is further supported by statistics on the over-crowding of prisons. It also highlights the challenges facing the justice system, whose 2015 federal expenditure was 78 billion pesos, below the 2012 level of expenditure.
The longer term trends indicate a marked improvement in peacefulness since 2011, the year in which violence peaked in Mexico. The country has improved its peacefulness by 13 percent since that time. Violent crime, homicides and organized crime have all fallen by nearly 30 percent. These improvements mean that twenty-five out of the 32 states in Mexico have become more peaceful since 2011, including four of the five states that ranked at the bottom in that year. These improvements in peace have resulted in roughly 85 percent of Mexicans living in a state that is more peaceful today than it was in 2011.
The rate of organized crime related offenses started to improve from 2010 onwards. In that year, 25 states improved their organized crime scores. These improvements preceded the reductions in homicides and violent crime that came two years later. In 2012, 21 states recorded improvements in their violent crime levels, while 19 states recorded a decrease in their homicide rates. These results would indicate that improvements in levels of organized crime levels may be a precursor of changes in other forms of violence.
This report presents a cautiously optimistic picture for the future of peace in Mexico. However, efforts need to be strengthened to counteract the slowdown in the improvements in peace that occurred in 2015. It is too early to determine if this is a reversal of the trend of improving peacefulness or a brief deviation from the underlying trend.
The five states with the largest improvements in their MPI scores over the past five years are Nayarit, Durango, Nuevo León, Chihuahua and Baja California. These were five of the seven least peaceful states in 2011, reflecting that the largest improvements have been recorded in the states most affected by violence. Nayarit ranked as the least peaceful state in Mexico five years ago. Today it ranks 19th out of 32. The five states with the largest deteriorations since 2011 are Baja California Sur, Zacatecas, Oaxaca, Querétaro and Guanajuato, reflecting shifts among organized crime groups and highlighting that not all parts of Mexico are improving.
The largest deterioration occurred in Baja California Sur, which has diverged from the national trend. The state’s homicide rate more than tripled, from 5.7 in 2011 to 19.8 in 2015. The rate of weapons crime also increased sevenfold.
There is a moderate, statistically significant relationship between improvements in peace and the levels of Positive Peace. The Mexican states that have higher levels of Positive Peace tended to experience larger reductions in violence between 2011 and 2015. Nuevo León, which ranks first in Positive Peace, had the third largest improvement.
Improvements in peacefulness have generated an economic benefit of 802 billion pesos (US$50 billion) in Mexico for the four years since 2011. This is a 38 percent reduction in the economic impact of violence and is nearly one and a half times the size of a single year of Mexico’s agricultural production.
In 2015, the economic impact of violence improved by four percent, at 76 billion pesos (US$4.8 billion). The decrease in violent crime in 2015 had the largest impact, representing 96 billion pesos, but was offset by the increased costs associated with higher homicide rates.
The economic impact of violence, including the opportunity cost, stands at 2.12 trillion pesos (US$134 billion) in 2015, equivalent to 13 percent of Mexico’s GDP. This corresponds to 17,525 pesos per person, roughly equal to two months of wages for the average Mexican worker.
Government expenditure on violence containment has been rising. Since the start of the escalation of violence in 2007, government expenditure on violence containment has grown at an average rate of 12 percent per annum. This rate outpaces the average growth in overall government spending, which increased by nine percent in the same period. It also outpaced the seven percent increase in education spending, while investments in economic development and health had similar average growth rates to violence containment. Given the country’s weaknesses in some of the domains of Positive Peace, the investments in the latter two are welcome, as a strong business environment and a robust health system are important elements of Positive Peace. Further investment in the other areas of Positive Peace would improve the overall resilience of Mexican society to violence.
There are at least three dynamics that impact the reliability of official crime statistics.
Most crime in Mexico goes unreported. Mexico’s statistical agency estimates that 92.8 percent of all crimes in 2014 were not reported to authorities. IEP therefore adjusts official statistics to account for underreporting in MPI scores.
Reporting of crimes by the police is inaccurate. By comparing the homicide numbers recorded by the police to death certificates from hospitals, it is estimated that homicide victims have been undercounted by more than 20 percent in 11 states. Notably, Veracruz, which ranks third for overall peacefulness in the MPI, has the largest discrepancy.
There is a need to enhance data collection and analysis. Both the accuracy of data and breadth of data could be improved. This would enable improvements in both official and unofficial analysis and is especially relevant in states where official statistics show low crime rates that contrast with other data sources and public surveys on crime.
Further, official statistics do not include the more than 26,000 people in Mexico who have been missing since 2007. This report includes an in-depth analysis on disappearances in Mexico. The majority of these people are either youth and/or male, often working class men with families. However some states face a higher proportion of missing women. The different activities of organized crime groups appear to impact the gender ratios. Independent research would suggest that approximately nine percent of known disappearances are related to elements of the government or groups working in collusion with the government.
Given these issues, the country has invested significant effort in reforms to the police, judicial and penal systems. The data on the implementation and effects of reforms remains nascent, therefore limiting the scope for quantitative analysis. But as the 2016 deadline for implementation of the New Criminal Justice System (Nuevo Sistema de Justicia Penal, NSJP) approaches, IEP has included a discussion on the nature of the reforms.
The focus of this report is to present data and research on the patterns, trends, causes and benefits of peace in Mexico. It aims to inform a strategic discussion among policymakers, researchers, business leaders and the general public. This report is organized in five sections presenting the results and findings of the 2016 MPI, including:
- Analysis of trends from 2011 to 2015;
- Positive Peace in Mexico;
- Economic value of peace in Mexico;
- Essay contributions from experts in Mexican civil society; and a
- Detailed description of the MPI methodology
*The Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP) is an independent, non-partisan, non-profit think tank dedicated to shifting the world’s focus to peace as a positive, achievable, and tangible measure of human well-being and progress. IEP achieves its goals by developing new conceptual frameworks to define peacefulness; providing metrics for measuring peace; and uncovering the relationships between business, peace and prosperity as well as promoting a better understanding of the cultural, economic and political factors that create peace. IEP has offices in Sydney, New York, Brussels and Mexico City. It works with a wide range of partners internationally and collaborates with intergovernmental organizations on measuring and communicating the economic value of peace.
For more information visit www.economicsandpeace.orghttp://economicsandpeace.org/