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| Enrique Peña Nieto and Barack Obama Photo: AP / Carolyn Kaster |
Translated by Helena Redman
It may sound absurd, but it seems to me that neither the Mexican and United States governments have ever really wanted to win the war against organized crime, nor are they interested in the human cost. I am proposing this as a working hypothesis because of the obstinate indifference with which they treat the invasion of illegal firearms. In seventy percent of cases, these originate in a black market fed by the U.S. (the rest coming from dishonest police officers and other countries).
One piece of evidence that supports this hypothesis appears in reports of the confrontation between “El Chapo” Guzmán’s guards and Mexico's marines during his most recent capture. The Mexican government made no comment on the type of arms they found. For their part, the media mentioned the topic only in passing, and when they did so the details were vague. Carlos Loret de Mola provided the most accurate account in his column for El Universal. Loret de Mola said that the Marines found
"AK-47’s and R-15 [...], grenades, three Barrett .50 caliber machine guns and two Russian-made RPGs [rocket-propelled grenade launchers]".
Precise figures, however, were lacking, and Loret de Mola erred in classifying the Barrett .50 caliber sniper rifles as "machine guns" (strictly speaking, these are "anti-material rifles", weapons of war designed to destroy military equipment).
Over in the United States they only became interested in El Chapo’s weapons when Fox News revealed that one of the eight guns analyzed by the ATF [U.S. Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms] had been among the 34 Barrett firearms sent to Mexico as part of Operation Fast and Furious (between 2009 and 2011, Washington allowed criminals to buy and transport firearms to Mexico in order to track them when they were used to kill or injure Mexicans). It has yet to be established which of Calderón’s officials approved such an atrocity; to date more than 200 Mexicans have been killed by Fast and Furious rifles.
From a military perspective, we are faced with bizarre contempt by these governments that have declared war on organized crime, since cutting off the enemy's military supply routes should be a basic rule. The outcome of the Battle of Stalingrad was determined when the Soviets besieged the German Sixth Army (as well as the Fourth), which collapsed as its ammunition, gas and food supplies ran out.
During the Vietnam War, the United States did everything it could to destroy the 10,000 miles of tunnels and jungle routes on the Ho Chi Minh trail, which served to transport cash, ammunition and food to South Vietnam. They were never able to succeed and, in part, it was because of this that Washington gave up.
The U.S. government is sidestepping responsibility for arms trafficking to Mexico because their hands are tied by the NRA [National Rifle Association], which is where the real power lies. This strange mix of social movement, pressure group and religious sect has been able to curb any attempt to control the sale of firearms in the U.S.
Moreover, the U.S. media’s interest in Operation Fast and Furious has not come from feelings of guilt over Mexican blood spilled. They only became interested in 2010 when Brian Terry, a U.S. Border Patrol Agent, was killed with a gun from this program. This was also what caused Republicans to use the program to hit out at Obama. Mexican lives didn’t matter.
The statistics are very clear: as more and more lethal weapons enter the country (the majority coming from the U.S.), the more dead we bury. An analysis of homicides in Mexico shows that in 2001 25 percent of homicides were committed with firearms; by 2015, this figure had risen to 56 percent.
In 2009, the war against drug trafficking was already shaking the country, and Felipe Calderón’s Security Cabinet turned a blind eye to arms smuggling. According to a WikiLeaks cable from October of that year, information on the serial numbers of guns seized from organized crime was classified as “incomplete”, because the Secretariat of Public Security, the Attorney General of Mexico and the Secretariat of National Defense were following different methodologies!
Over in the United States they only became interested in El Chapo’s weapons when Fox News revealed that one of the eight guns analyzed by the ATF [U.S. Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms] had been among the 34 Barrett firearms sent to Mexico as part of Operation Fast and Furious (between 2009 and 2011, Washington allowed criminals to buy and transport firearms to Mexico in order to track them when they were used to kill or injure Mexicans). It has yet to be established which of Calderón’s officials approved such an atrocity; to date more than 200 Mexicans have been killed by Fast and Furious rifles.
From a military perspective, we are faced with bizarre contempt by these governments that have declared war on organized crime, since cutting off the enemy's military supply routes should be a basic rule. The outcome of the Battle of Stalingrad was determined when the Soviets besieged the German Sixth Army (as well as the Fourth), which collapsed as its ammunition, gas and food supplies ran out.
During the Vietnam War, the United States did everything it could to destroy the 10,000 miles of tunnels and jungle routes on the Ho Chi Minh trail, which served to transport cash, ammunition and food to South Vietnam. They were never able to succeed and, in part, it was because of this that Washington gave up.
The U.S. government is sidestepping responsibility for arms trafficking to Mexico because their hands are tied by the NRA [National Rifle Association], which is where the real power lies. This strange mix of social movement, pressure group and religious sect has been able to curb any attempt to control the sale of firearms in the U.S.
Moreover, the U.S. media’s interest in Operation Fast and Furious has not come from feelings of guilt over Mexican blood spilled. They only became interested in 2010 when Brian Terry, a U.S. Border Patrol Agent, was killed with a gun from this program. This was also what caused Republicans to use the program to hit out at Obama. Mexican lives didn’t matter.
The statistics are very clear: as more and more lethal weapons enter the country (the majority coming from the U.S.), the more dead we bury. An analysis of homicides in Mexico shows that in 2001 25 percent of homicides were committed with firearms; by 2015, this figure had risen to 56 percent.
In 2009, the war against drug trafficking was already shaking the country, and Felipe Calderón’s Security Cabinet turned a blind eye to arms smuggling. According to a WikiLeaks cable from October of that year, information on the serial numbers of guns seized from organized crime was classified as “incomplete”, because the Secretariat of Public Security, the Attorney General of Mexico and the Secretariat of National Defense were following different methodologies!
Washington wasn't that interested in resolving the situation either. At that point they were still giving Mexican officials forms in English, which they had to fill out to request serial numbers from the U.S. in order to know where seized firearms had been manufactured and sold (an electronic tracing system called eTrace). A little later, they made a Spanish version.
Whether it is for lack of will or for lack of power, Washington is doing extremely little to stop the illegal trafficking of these products. However, we must acknowledge that they have always produced fairly accurate reports (which is more than can be said for Mexico). In January 2016 the U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) issued a report in which it claims that control of arms trafficking has deteriorated under Enrique Peña Nieto because:
Whether it is for lack of will or for lack of power, Washington is doing extremely little to stop the illegal trafficking of these products. However, we must acknowledge that they have always produced fairly accurate reports (which is more than can be said for Mexico). In January 2016 the U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) issued a report in which it claims that control of arms trafficking has deteriorated under Enrique Peña Nieto because:
- A government unit that was trusted and experienced in tracing firearms was disbanded when Peña Nieto came into power (though it isn't clear in which government branch);
- Efforts were concentrated in just one office of the Mexican Attorney General's Office, causing a drastic decrease in the number of searches, and the
- Meetings of GC Armas, a specialized bi-national working group, were suspended.
Enrique Peña Nieto is commander-in-chief of a war that he apparently does not want to win. And because the U.S. doesn't want to win it either, or perhaps cannot win it, military equipment will continue arrive to aid organized crime, and the human cost of this never-ending conflict will continue to rise. In order to resolve this situation the communications media need to add the issue to its list of priorities, and victim organizations need to add it to their demands. So long as nothing changes, both governments will carry on pretending they want victory, when all they do is simply an act. Spanish original
*Sergio Aguayo, professor of Political Science at The College of Mexico, is a leading political analyst and commentator in Mexico. He is president of Propuesta Cívica [Civic Proposal] and a participant in the Movement for Peace with Justice and Dignity. Aguayo obtained his Ph.D. from Johns Hopkins University. His thesis on the history of Mexican-U.S. government relations in the twentieth century, was subsequently published as Myths and MisPerceptions: Changing U.S. Elite Visions of Mexico. His latest book is Remolino: El México de la Sociedad Organizada, los Poderes Fácticos y Enrique Peña Nieto [The Mexican Enigma: The Mexico of Organized Society, De Facto Powers and Enrique Peña Nieto]. @sergioaguayo