The country is going through difficult times, which for many is no longer paradoxical. For members of the PRI [Party of the Institutional Revolution], who feel that "they've already done it", everything might seem to be going forward without a hitch. For the general population, which just wants to be able to live in peace and quiet, the sense of order that the new government has instituted might seem to offer the opportunity to regain that wish.
However, what is clear is that the real underlying problems have not changed but, if anything, they have intensified. Reflecting on this, I remember that Paul Valéry famously said that "the problem of our times is that the future is not what it used to be."
Explanations abound, but they intersect with proposals, desires and interests, all legitimate, but that eventually cloud rather than clarify, the panorama. What follows is the way I understand and see the moment that we are experiencing and from whence it sprang.
- The old system allowed the country to stabilize after the revolutionary period [1910-1920], but ended up being unsustainable. It worked well for a while (especially between 1950 and 1970), until it collapsed in part by its own contradictions and in part by its success: it generated an urban middle class that rebelled against "the system".
- The response of Echeverria [President Luis Echeverría, 1970-1976] was to inflate the economy to make room for all claimants, which created a caste of "beneficiaries" (unions, business groups, small farmers and politicians) who continue to plunder and undermine the productivity of the entire economy. He also initiated the era of crisis and social conflict.
- The reforms of the 1980s and 90s made sure to construct a new platform for economic growth and laid the foundations for the prosperity now enjoyed by the modern industrial sector. Unfortunately, the folly of protecting PRI interests accentuated and solidified the contradictions that we are experiencing today: protected sectors, lack of competition, monopoly energy and very low economic productivity in general.
- But the prosperity is real, and it is this prosperity that made it possible to develop a national politics toward democratic competition. Electoral reforms led to the PRI's defeat in 2000 and to the alternation of political power [PAN presidents, 2000-2012]. A lack of vision and a reluctance to build modern institutions led to the contradictions that characterize today's political life--conflicts before which the old institutions do not have the capacity to respond. They can't respond because they were simply not created either to make citizen participation possible or to resolve problems.
- Mexico is an extremely complex country and terribly difficult to govern. The diversity, the ethnic, religious, economic, geographical and cultural dispersion, and regional contrasts demand exceptional political skills. Historically, it has been effective when there has been a functioning central government combined with skilled and effective local governments. The PRI governed for decades with methods that today are perceived to be intolerable but that had the effect of making it seem like it was easy to do. The PAN [National Action Party] governments believed that everything was a matter of removing the PRI. Today Oaxaca, Guerrero and Michoacán demonstrate the unfeasibility both of the old PRI methods and of the PAN's naivete.
MV Note: These are poor, southern states with many indigenous and with long histories of uprisings. They are current sites of the emergence of community police for self-defense and of teachers protesting the education reform.- Crises, errors, corruption and incompetence of its leaders have discredited the political class. The arrogance and parasitism of politicians (and their relatives), their abuses of officials, the persistence of excesses by union leaders (although they change, those who follow end up being the same), and the mockery of mechanisms of transparency serve only to strengthen the cynicism and mistrust characteristic of the Mexican.
- All this makes political reform essential. The Pact for Mexico that the current government devised is better than the paralysis of previous decades, but it is a poor substitute for an effective government system (executive, legislative).
- Beyond its specific form, political reform would have to achieve:
a) that politicians be accountable to the electorate and not to their bosses;
b) mechanisms to make possible the formation of legislative majorities; and
c) a system of effective governance both to govern and to resolve security issues.
There is no one way to achieve these goals: what's important is that they be achieved. Some prefer a second round; others a semi-parliamentary system. Some want re-election; others a strong executive. Some prefer proportional representation, others direct representation. What matters is not the form but the result and the flexibility to make corrections until the system works.
MV Note: "Second round" refers to presidential elections involving candidates from three major political parties; the candidate with a plurality of votes is the winner. A second round, between the two top vote-getters, would provide a winner with a clear majority. "Re-election" refers to the current prohibition against elected officials being reelected. "Proportional representation" refers to inclusion in the Congress of "plurinominal" seats, divided among the parties in proportion to the percentage of votes each wins for such seats. This is in order to guarantee that even minority parties have representation.
- While the politicians fight, the parties agonize, and the government feigns reform, the population is increasingly beset by organized crime: extortion and kidnapping have become everyday topics in much of the country. The issue is not whether the previous government had the right or wrong strategy, or whether the current government can solve the problem without defining a different strategy. The issue is that organized crime is eating away at the country and, if not addressed, it will end up destroying it. It has happened in other countries.
- Therefore, true reform of the justice system, prosecutors, police and, in general, the entire security system is urgently needed. Mexico's problem is not drug trafficking, but state capacity: it is essential to maintain peace, security and justice. And to enforce the law for everyone. In other words, a modern country.
- In addition to the above, it is imperative to transcend the notion that a few constitutional reforms will transform the country. What will transform it will be implementation of reforms on issues such as education, employment and social security, which implies affecting all kinds of powerful interests. The same is true of the energy sector and the Treasury: both tax collection and spending mechanisms, and oversight of both. It is there, not in legislative awards ceremonies, where the government's success will be measured. The appropriate measure is growth in productivity: all the rest is mere rhetoric.
- The current government has a clear sense of government and of power, including an extraordinary communication capacity. Although these characteristics and skills are essential to advance, they are not sufficient to achieve its commitment. The country requires a new and modern institutional system; that is, an underlying reform of everything that it has been dragging with it from the past. Without that, the most competent government will not be able to be successful.
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*Luis Rubio is a political analyst and President, CIDAC, Center of Research for Development, in Mexico. He is author and editor of thirty seven books. His MA and PhD in political science are from Brandeis University.