La Jornada: Octavio Rodríguez Araujo
The Pact for Mexico could well be an veiled confession by its opposing signatories: since its participants (the National Action Party/PAN and the Party of the Democratic Revolution/PRD) can't win, they can at least take part in the decisions made by Peña Nieto's government, even if only as witnesses with a voice. They expect something in return for their support of the PRI administration.
In the fourteen states where elections will be held this year, the opposition will not achieve major victories. In Aguascalientes, the PRI holds all the city halls and will likely keep them. In the local legislature, the PAN, PRD and PT [Labor Party] parties are not the majority. It's more or less the same in Baja California, and while the PAN is currently in charge, it's likely to lose the governorship (although we can't rule out special arrangements if the candidate from Beltrones loses). In Chihuahua, the opposition taking part in the pact is lost. In Coahuila, it's even worse. In Durango, the election will be close, but the PRI and its allies will likely win, both in the city halls and in the Chamber of Deputies. In the old PRI enclave of Hidalgo, things are not likely to change: the most likely outcome is that the PRI candidates will sweep the legislature. In Quintana Roo, the PRI will perhaps have to share its mayoralities with the PAN and the PRD, but it's almost certain to win the majority of legislative seats. Something similar may happen in Sinaloa, Veracruz and Zacatecas. Oaxaca, Puebla and Tlaxcala will have a plurality both in their governments and in Congress, and the PRI will sweep Tamaulipas.
Will the pact last after the results of the next election come out on July 7? Perhaps, since the current map of supporters won't look very different then. The "Crusade Against Hunger," which will continue to move forth even after the anomalies found in Veracruz, will continue to influence the electoral campaigns in the PRI's favor. Mrs. Robles knows the seemingly populist tricks and rhetoric. She will be less obvious, of course, but she will continue as she has for years. She wasn't chosen for her PRI membership nor her proximity to the president's inner circle, but for her experience on the left (in the broadest sense), in addition to her well-known personal ambition.
The PVEM [Ecologist Green Party of Mexico] has confirmed its minority holding with the PRI; it's the same for the new Panal [New Alliance Party] (now without Mrs. Gordillo). The PT, which in Durango and Sinaloa did not hesitate to align itself with the PAN, will try to maintain its relative independence, which in previous local elections earned it several mayorships and a few seats in state legislatures. The Citizens Movement, perhaps the weaker party, will attempt to keep its voters or remain in states like Durango, Oaxaca, Puebla, Veracruz and Zacatecas. These four parties are not among the signatories of the Pact for Mexico -- they weren't invited -- perhaps because they aren't major. Is the intention that they will waste away to nothing? I don't think so, since they have proven useful, especially those that have allied themselves with the PRI. But also since those that have allied themselves in the past with López Obrador would not hesitate, if they're losing voters, to fatten the ranks of Morena (on the one hand) or of the party that's taking them in (on the other). None of the three parties that signed the agreement want Morena to grow, since all are anti-López Obrador.
The PRI's likely wins in this year's elections will help establish it as an arguably hegemonic political force and thus allow it to carry out the major reforms to come, principally in the areas of the economy and energy. If the PRD doesn't want to support them, it could even exit the pact, but knowing them, they will more likely console themselves with voicing their opposition and, in the best case scenario, win some points or negotiations on these reforms. Even then, the PRI will not have problems with consolidating, between its associated parties, the necessary majority in both legislative chambers to push forward such reforms. It may yield on issues like the VAT for food and medicine, in order to maintain the current pact, and ensure that it stays on good terms with the majority of the population.
The pragmatic currency of this government, as we have seen before in the Department of the Interior, is negotiation. And Peña's political operators, as far as we can see, are good negotiators (I don't know if this is always for the best). The return of the PAN to the pact and the declarations on the part of its leader, Gustavo Madero, demonstrate that he does not understand his role very well. First he said that the pact's contents benefit our country and all Mexicans, and then called on his fellow members to defend the people from the threat of an authoritarian reinstatement of PRI governors around the country (excelsior.com.mx, 5/13/13). Zambrano understands his role more clearly: he says, for those who want to believe him, that he has managed to influence the decisions in the pact and, at the same time, threaten Rosario Robles with a lawsuit for using funds from the program she heads up for electoral purposes. This threat could fade in the bureaucratic labyrinths and thus may not succeed. He has said that the suit is not political, but perhaps it is. One more point to negotiate.
rodriguezaraujo.unam.mx
Spanish original
The Pact for Mexico could well be an veiled confession by its opposing signatories: since its participants (the National Action Party/PAN and the Party of the Democratic Revolution/PRD) can't win, they can at least take part in the decisions made by Peña Nieto's government, even if only as witnesses with a voice. They expect something in return for their support of the PRI administration.
In the fourteen states where elections will be held this year, the opposition will not achieve major victories. In Aguascalientes, the PRI holds all the city halls and will likely keep them. In the local legislature, the PAN, PRD and PT [Labor Party] parties are not the majority. It's more or less the same in Baja California, and while the PAN is currently in charge, it's likely to lose the governorship (although we can't rule out special arrangements if the candidate from Beltrones loses). In Chihuahua, the opposition taking part in the pact is lost. In Coahuila, it's even worse. In Durango, the election will be close, but the PRI and its allies will likely win, both in the city halls and in the Chamber of Deputies. In the old PRI enclave of Hidalgo, things are not likely to change: the most likely outcome is that the PRI candidates will sweep the legislature. In Quintana Roo, the PRI will perhaps have to share its mayoralities with the PAN and the PRD, but it's almost certain to win the majority of legislative seats. Something similar may happen in Sinaloa, Veracruz and Zacatecas. Oaxaca, Puebla and Tlaxcala will have a plurality both in their governments and in Congress, and the PRI will sweep Tamaulipas.
Will the pact last after the results of the next election come out on July 7? Perhaps, since the current map of supporters won't look very different then. The "Crusade Against Hunger," which will continue to move forth even after the anomalies found in Veracruz, will continue to influence the electoral campaigns in the PRI's favor. Mrs. Robles knows the seemingly populist tricks and rhetoric. She will be less obvious, of course, but she will continue as she has for years. She wasn't chosen for her PRI membership nor her proximity to the president's inner circle, but for her experience on the left (in the broadest sense), in addition to her well-known personal ambition.
The PVEM [Ecologist Green Party of Mexico] has confirmed its minority holding with the PRI; it's the same for the new Panal [New Alliance Party] (now without Mrs. Gordillo). The PT, which in Durango and Sinaloa did not hesitate to align itself with the PAN, will try to maintain its relative independence, which in previous local elections earned it several mayorships and a few seats in state legislatures. The Citizens Movement, perhaps the weaker party, will attempt to keep its voters or remain in states like Durango, Oaxaca, Puebla, Veracruz and Zacatecas. These four parties are not among the signatories of the Pact for Mexico -- they weren't invited -- perhaps because they aren't major. Is the intention that they will waste away to nothing? I don't think so, since they have proven useful, especially those that have allied themselves with the PRI. But also since those that have allied themselves in the past with López Obrador would not hesitate, if they're losing voters, to fatten the ranks of Morena (on the one hand) or of the party that's taking them in (on the other). None of the three parties that signed the agreement want Morena to grow, since all are anti-López Obrador.
The PRI's likely wins in this year's elections will help establish it as an arguably hegemonic political force and thus allow it to carry out the major reforms to come, principally in the areas of the economy and energy. If the PRD doesn't want to support them, it could even exit the pact, but knowing them, they will more likely console themselves with voicing their opposition and, in the best case scenario, win some points or negotiations on these reforms. Even then, the PRI will not have problems with consolidating, between its associated parties, the necessary majority in both legislative chambers to push forward such reforms. It may yield on issues like the VAT for food and medicine, in order to maintain the current pact, and ensure that it stays on good terms with the majority of the population.
The pragmatic currency of this government, as we have seen before in the Department of the Interior, is negotiation. And Peña's political operators, as far as we can see, are good negotiators (I don't know if this is always for the best). The return of the PAN to the pact and the declarations on the part of its leader, Gustavo Madero, demonstrate that he does not understand his role very well. First he said that the pact's contents benefit our country and all Mexicans, and then called on his fellow members to defend the people from the threat of an authoritarian reinstatement of PRI governors around the country (excelsior.com.mx, 5/13/13). Zambrano understands his role more clearly: he says, for those who want to believe him, that he has managed to influence the decisions in the pact and, at the same time, threaten Rosario Robles with a lawsuit for using funds from the program she heads up for electoral purposes. This threat could fade in the bureaucratic labyrinths and thus may not succeed. He has said that the suit is not political, but perhaps it is. One more point to negotiate.
rodriguezaraujo.unam.mx
Spanish original