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Saturday, April 20, 2013

Mexico: "Death" of Pact for Mexico May Be Imminent

"Pact for Mexico: Everyone Working for You"
Left to Right: Luis Videgaray (Secretary, Treasury), Gustav Madero (President, PAN), Jesús Zambrano (President, PRD), César Camacho (President, PRI) and Miguel Ángel Osorio Chong (Secretary, Government Affairs-SEGOB).
(Photo: Miguel Dimayuga)
Proceso: Jesusa Cervantes

Mexico City - The latest political signals from the Chamber of Deputies point to the imminent "death" of the so-called Pact for Mexico.

The "pecking away" by Enrique Peña Nieto's government at the last actions of his predecessor, Felipe Calderón Hinojosa--for example, the release of General Tomás Ángeles Duahare for lack of evidence and their ridicule of the so-called Operation Clean by caldaronistas [Calderón's bloc]--lead us to think of an early break between the PRI and PAN.

What is at stake [for the PRI] is making themselves the "crown jewel". After 24 years, it is the PRI's claim that it can recover electorally the first state it lost: Baja California.

In August of 1989, Ernesto Ruffo Appel, a then-charismatic entrepreneur [and PAN candidate for governor], snatched victory away from the PRI candidate, Margarita Ortega Villa, to become Governor of Baja California [notably, the first non-PRI State Governor in 60 years]. The game of complicity and collusion between the PRI and PAN had begun.

[Former President] Carlos Salinas de Gortari, eager for legitimacy, recognized the PAN victory. Without signing any agreement, they began the joint approval of a series of reforms that changed not only the Constitution, but the political, social and religious make-up of the country.

The rest is history: the PAN arrived at the Presidency of the Republic for the agreed time of twelve years. Today on its return to power, the PRI of Peña Nieto and his cronies, equally eager for legitimacy, followed the Salinas strategy: co-govern with the PAN by making them part of "the great transformation of the country".

Thus, they signed the Pact for Mexico--of course, the PRD did not want to miss its date with history so they also signed--thus in the Chamber of Deputies the PAN and the PRI succeeded in bringing forward the new labor law that ends all rights won by workers, especially for job security.

Of course, the labor reform was enacted before the the Pact was signed, but it was only the preamble to what the PRI and the PAN can now achieve together: an overwhelming majority that annihilates any attempt to check their actions.

No problem by the PAN faction was envisioned in this Pact owing to the [PAN's] relation to Felipe Calderón. It was the concession that the PRI made to the calderonistas before taking the helm of power in its entirety.

Once the Pact was signed, Gustavo Madero [President, PAN] became one of the protagonists but now without Calderón on the political scene--although like all former presidents [Calderón] maintains some power to continue pulling strings.  And that's when the problems began.

First, because Madero no longer agreed with the PRI that he [Madero] be subordinated to the PRI. Then, and here comes the real problem, [PAN] Luis Alberto Villarreal, Parliamentary Coordinator in the Chamber of Deputies and part of Madero's political group, closed the debate of his fellow party members. In the PAN faction, instead of debating whether they would or would not support the initiatives of the so-called Pact initiatives, an affirmative vote was imposed.

The PAN Deputies themselves now say that at least half of the faction--114 Deputies--are upset about it. Not only that, they accuse Madero of having "delivered" to the Peña government and the PRI, of saying 'yes' to everything, of making agreements without consulting the federal Deputies, of avoiding any 'disturbance' of Manlio Fabio Beltrones, PRI Coordinator, let alone challenging Enrique Peña Nieto.

Some PAN deputies say that by agreeing, "we pass into submission". But they also warn that they are not willing to keep at it, given that fourteen elections are just around the corner. One of them is, of course, Baja California. According to forecasts by those who claim to know the issue, the PRI is more than strong in the northern entity.

But it isn't just Baja California that is key for the PRI, so is Veracruz. Although it will not elect a governor--if [Governor] Javier Duarte is able to say that he actually governs--it is a state that will elect mayors and the local [state] Congress.

For decades, the PAN has had a strong presence in the major cities, such as the port of Veracruz, Orizaba, Córdoba, and has even come to govern them. Today, it aims to recover them, but the PRI intends to keep them.

According to the PAN complaint, Javier Duarte has resorted to electoral chicanery. He has conditioned the use of social programs run by SEDESOL [Secretariat of Social Development] and Rosario Robles [SEDESOL's Secretary] on assurance of future votes to achieve a PRI victory.  

In the Chamber of Deputies, the calderonistas have justly denounced Duarte. Last week, while the national leader of the PAN, Gustavo Madero, under pressure from Yunes [PAN Miguel Ángel Yunes, General Director, Institute of Insurance and Social Services for State Workers] denounced the interference of the Governor and SEDESOL's head [Rosario Robles] in the Chamber, another calderonista, Beatriz Zavala, announced the upcoming impeachment complaints against [Veracruz Governor] Duarte and Robles.

Also last week, the PAN revolted against Gustavo Madero and his coordinator, Luis Alberto Villarreal, who had agreed with the PRI to replace the Chairman of the Monex Commission, PRD Roberto López Suárez, with the [PRI] Deputy from Atlacomulco, José Rangel.

Faced with the PAN rebellion, the party leadership could not sustain its agreement with the PRI. It is significant that it has been precisely the calderonista Deputies who have protested against the agreement of the Monex Commission and who have announced impeachment of the PRI officials.

It is the calderonistas who justly relish the point in their favor given the exhibition and ridicule of Felipe Calderón's actions.

Faced with the next elections, the PRI, like the majority of those who regain power, resorts to pecking away at his predecessor in order to win supporters by disqualification. For politicians in power, it doesn't matter if yesterday's ally is tomorrow's electoral enemy. What matters is winning the election, and if this requires risking their "glorious" Pact for Mexico, they will do it.

The [more attention is focused on] analyzing the pecking away in the Chamber, the results of the latest polls, the state of neglect in the Chamber, the complaints regarding politicized [legal] judgments and the ridicule of the previous government, the less the coming "death" of the Pact for Mexico is seen.

After July, after the elections and with other forces, such as economic, in play, it is possible that  artificial respiration may be given to the Pact in order to "revive it" at a time suitable for the PRI and the PAN.

Comments: mjcervantes@proceso.com.mx  Spanish original